| Santa Clara University Business
Index: Silicon Valley Outlook 12-month
Index Trend Executive Summary The Santa Clara University Business Index: Silicon Valley Outlook survey polls SCU Advisory Board members and alumni of the MBA program on the third Monday of each month with a view to forecasting sentiment about the Valley's economic trends. Our sample accesses a highly qualified group of individuals who populate the employment base of Silicon Valley. The brief survey elicits both a backward-looking as well as a forward-looking swing indicator, thereby capturing sentiment of the past six months' trend and its counterpart six months into the future. The reported averages of these indicators offer an aggregate summary of business sentiment in the valley. The swing indicators range from 0 to 100, centered on 50. Values below 50 imply negative outlook, and those above 50 imply positive outlook. A comparison of the backward swing to the forward one reveals the change in sentiment. The survey is conducted every month and over time results may serve as an early warning system of upswings and downswings in the Silicon Valley economy. Monthly results are reported on the Index Home Page. Each month, an additional question about the respondents' industry or company is included with the survey. Results for the question of the month are posted on the current month's index page. Archives for 2003 are also available. Please direct questions and comments to svi@scu.edu. Results for March 2004 (Updated 3/29/2004)
This month's backward-looking index is
62.9 (vs. in 64.8 in February). Analysis provided by The Survey Company identified no significant differences between February and March on the indexes or the individual questionnaire items. Compared to 6 months ago (September), the backward index has increased significantly (from 56.5 to 62.9, p. = .001). This indicates that conditions now compared to last September are about the same as last September looking back to the previous March. The forward index has not changed significantly ( 62.2 in September, 64.4 in March). Comparing expected conditions looking 6 months ahead in September with perceived current conditions in March, we find current conditions are about as expected 6 months ago. Comparing March index items to responses given in September, we find significant differences on all current index items, and no significant difference on expected conditions. March results for the three backward-looking items are significantly more positive than those for last September. Sample Information On Sunday, March 21, 2004, 1,439 invitations were distributed to SCU Advisory Board members and MBA and undergraduate alumni in Silicon Valley, of which 65 were undeliverable, yielding 1,374 valid invitations. A total of 164 responses were received by the closing date of March 26, for a response rate of 11.9%. Respondents who reported they are not currently employed were excluded from calculation of the results (N=8 in March). Charts showing respondent characteristics are included in the monthly report along with item-by-item trends and a graph of the Swing Indicators for the year. (Includes links to monthly results pages and 2002 archive) Please direct questions and comments to svi@scu.edu.
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